Trading Desk
Deutsche Bank: A setback as a new opportunity?
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Wolfgang Hagl
Redaktor
The upcoming payment date and, above all, an investor day planned for November suggest that Deutsche Bank will soon continue its recently interrupted upward trend.
Politicians, monetary authorities, academics and managers came together last week for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington D.C.. Two opposing views clashed at the event. Europe insists on protecting the banking sector from new crises with strict rules. Meanwhile, the US government is committed to deregulating this important economic sector.
On the penultimate day of the conference, the participants were given a vivid demonstration of how pronounced investors’ fear of distortions in the financial sector still is. News of irregularities and loan defaults at two US regional banks triggered a moment of shock on the stock markets. Concerns about a new crisis also caused shares in the European sector to fly out of portfolios.
A hot topic
In the meantime, the situation has stabilized somewhat. Support has come from the head of the German Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. “I’m not worried about German banks,” he said in Washington. The regulatory efforts of recent years had made Europe’s banks much more robust and crisis-proof. “It would be downright ludicrous if we were to abandon this in any form,” Nagel emphasized. The latest events in the States – together with the discussion about regulation – are likely to be a topic when Deutsche Bank presents its interim report for the third quarter of 2025 next week. CEO Christian Sewig will take part in a call with CFO James von Moltke on October 29 from 11:00 am.
Strong investment banking
The focus is likely to be on the recent business performance of the Frankfurt-based bank. With the “Global House Bank” strategy, Sewig is successfully restructuring Germany’s largest bank. “Our business is resilient and diversified, we have a solid capital base and have now reached the stage of sustainable growth,” he summed up the situation when presenting the half-year figures. Sewig reported double-digit percentage profit growth rates for all four divisions. Driven by investment banking, where Deutsche Bank is benefiting from flourishing bond and currency trading as well as booming income from the issuing and advisory business, the DAX-listed group was well on the way to achieving its targets for 2025. Among other things, the CEO is aiming for a return on equity of more than 10%. Between 2020 and 2024, this figure averaged just 5.1%.
Marked outperformance
Next week’s payment date is only an intermediate step on the way to the Investor Day. Deutsche Bank is inviting investors to London on November 17 under the motto “Deep Dive”. There, the top management is expected to present the targets for the coming years. Kian Abouhossein, analyst at J.P. Morgan, believes it is possible that Deutsche Bank will aim for a return on equity of more than 12% in the future. With such a target, he believes the company could trigger the next phase of outperformance. Recently, Deutsche Bank has clearly outperformed both the European sector and its US competitors. Although the rally has stalled, the share is trading more than 70% above its 2024 closing price.
Investment Solution
Following the negative news from the USA, Deutsche Bank approached the 100-day line. There is also horizontal support in the EUR 29 area. This area could form the basis for a new run above the EUR 30 mark – this is where the large cap has consolidated in recent months. The long mini future
The Barrier Reverse Convertible RDBALV offers a more defensive alternative. As long as Deutsche Bank does not fall to or below the barrier of EUR 22,148, the Vontobel security will yield a sideways return of 14.5% in August 2026.
