Opinion Leaders
Shutdown brings high-frequency data to the fore
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The Globe
Eurizon’s Investment View
Over the past few weeks, following the suspension of the release of official macroeconomic data on the US economy, socalled “alternative data” has come to the fore, published by private institutions. These figures, often released on a weekly basis, can provide timely indications on the evolution of the economy.
For what concerns the US labour market, Indeed Job Posting indices on the number of job advertisements published daily continued to point in September and early October to a continuation of the slowdown that began in 2022 and have returned to levels similar to those recorded before the pandemic, consistent with low employment growth rates.
At the same time, the weekly ASA Staffing Index on the dynamic of temporary position hirings reported an extension into September and the opening weeks of October of the recovery that began in July, yet at a more upbeat pace.
Overall, these indicators point to a weakening of employment growth in the US, with businesses more inclined to hire temporary workers.
On the consumption front, in the first three weeks of October the weekly Redbook Retail Sales Index grew on average by 5.6% y/y, after rising by 6.1% y/y on average in September, suggesting that consumption growth continues at a strong pace.
Consumer spending in the US found an important source of support in the increase of the net wealth of US households to new longterm highs in 2Q 2025, in terms of both financial and property wealth.
For what concerns the “wealth effect” tied to property ownership, weekly data on the real estate market published by Redfin suggest a further increase in September and at the beginning of October. According to Redfin estimates, home sales prices accelerated slightly in September (to 1.7% y/y) and October (to 1.9% y/y). In addition, home sales are reported to have accelerated at a stronger pace, fuelled by the drop in mortgage rates following the resumption of the Federal Reserve’s downward cycle on policy rates.
Lastly, for what concerns price dynamics, Nowcasting models (real-time estimates) on consumer price inflation drawn up by the Cleveland Federal Reserve estimate a marginal slowdown of the headline rate in October, to 2.95% y/y from 2.99% previously, with a monthly increase of 0.19%. Core inflation is also forecast to drop very slightly, to 2.93% y/y in October from 2.95% in September, while rising in monthly terms by 0.25%.
At the same time, pressures generated by the wage dynamic seem to be gradually easing. According to the Indeed Wage Tracker, a monthly index drawn up by Indeed that tracks the dynamic of wages and salaries in job postings published on the Indeed websites, in September the wage dynamic stayed on the gradual downtrend observed since 2022, rising by 2.5% y/y from 2.7% in August.
