Trading Desk
“Trading idea”: Ferrari – less power, more sound
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Serge Nussbaumer
Chefredaktor
Electrical milestone at the plant, share price plummeting on the stock market – the luxury car manufacturer, which had been spoiled by success, was recently out of favor with investors. Strong quarterly figures are now providing relief and a U-turn in the share price.
Mini-Future Long on Ferrari
Like almost every day, there was a whiff of gasoline in the air over Maranello on October 9. This time, however, it was not the scent of acceleration. No sooner had Ferrari presented its new medium-term targets, the share took a full braking action. The stock plunged by up to 16%, causing more than EUR 12 billion in market value to go up in smoke. Investors reacted angrily to the figures, which sounded less like full throttle and more like cautious braking. Even the simultaneous presentation of the first fully electric model, the “Elettrica”, did not help.
Instead of raising expectations ever higher as usual, CEO Benedetto Vigna deliberately stepped on the brakes at the Capital Markets Day. Ferrari is now targeting sales of around EUR 9 billion for 2030. Although this is a decent increase on the EUR 7.1 billion forecast for this year, it does not meet analysts’ expectations. “We want to make sure that we keep our promises,” said Vigna, explaining his focus on the future. However, solid growth instead of spectacular visions does not go down well in the luxury segment – after all, Ferrari has been setting records there for years.
The racing company is also changing course when it comes to electrification. Ferrari has abandoned its 2022 plan to achieve a 40% share of purely electric models by 2030. In future, 20% of the model range is to consist of electric cars, 40% of hybrids and 40% of combustion engines. The Group is thus focusing on its customers, for whom sound, emotion and tradition are just as important as technology. After the Elettrica, there will be no second electric model series before 2028.
“Ferrari puts the brakes on expectations – and the stock market reacts with a price drop of up to 16%.”
Positive interim report
The latest figures provided some relief, or rather a turnaround. The Italians were able to defy the US tariffs and delivered 3,401 vehicles in the third quarter, more than expected. While net profit only increased by 1.8%, as US import tariffs weighed on the result, increased customer requests for custom-made products contributed to sales growth of 7.4%. The company’s management reaffirmed the annual forecast that was raised last month. The stock market acknowledged the figures with a premium of around 4% and the share price is gradually heading back towards the EUR 400 mark. With a P/E ratio of 34 for 2026 and forecast earnings growth of 12.6%, the premium share is no bargain, but it reflects the unique strength of the brand. Analysts remain predominantly optimistic. Although the average price target has been reduced in recent weeks, at EUR 415 it is still around 23% above the current level. Bold investors can now play a rebound towards the end of the year. The newly issued mini-future long offers a leverage of 7.6, with a stop loss level of EUR 320.67, which is still below the annual low of EUR 320.
Product information*
| ISIN | CH1496376620 |
| Product type | Mini Future Long |
| Underlying | Ferrari |
| Issuer | BNP Paribas |
| Rating | A+ (S&P) |
| Trading currency | CHF |
| First trading day | 22.10.2025 |
| Maturity | open-end |
| Issue price | CHF 1.72 |
| Underlying | EUR 405.81 |
| Leverage | 7.6 |
| Stop loss | EUR 320.67 |
| Financing level | EUR 305.4449 |
| Brief* | CHF 2.13 |
| Exchange | Swiss DOTS |
| Weblink | payoff.ch/CH1496376620 |
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