Zalando: On the catwalk

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  Wolfgang Hagl
  Redaktor

The time has come on Saturday: Munich’s Lord Mayor Dieter Reiter will tap the first barrel of beer at 12 noon sharp. With the legendary saying “O’zapft is!” he opens the 190th Oktoberfest. Millions of visitors will flock to the “Wiesn” until October 5. In the first week, numerous top managers and stock analysts are likely to be seen at the stalls, on the rides and in the beer temples. Banks traditionally use the Oktoberfest period for investment conferences. Berenberg and Goldman Sachs, among others, are organizing a joint event. Zalando is one of the many companies presenting at the “German Corporate Conference”.

Summer rebound

Europe’s largest online fashion retailer arrives in the Bavarian capital with a tailwind. Zalando shares are up 11% over the past month. In the DAX, only Rheinmetall has performed better in this period. While the arms manufacturer has just reached a new all-time high, Zalando is experiencing a rebound. The fashion share is now aiming to break the downward trend that began in February – more on this later. In operational terms, the e-commerce company, which was founded in 2008, is currently focusing on the integration of About You. In July, Zalando completed the billion-euro takeover of its smaller competitor. At the beginning of August, the management presented an initial forecast for the combined fashion retail business.

Light and shadow

In 2025, Zalando aims to generate an adjusted operating profit of between EUR 550 million and EUR 600 million. The Berlin-based company had previously targeted a range of EUR 530 to 590 million. Zalando has thus indirectly raised its outlook, as About You is likely to be in the red this year. Meanwhile, co-CEOs Robert Gentz and David Schröder have adjusted their sales forecast downwards. They expect growth of 4% to 7% for 2025, instead of the previously targeted increase of 4% to 9%. About You is slowing down here. Gentz admitted during a conference call that consumer sentiment is not particularly good at the moment. “We are nevertheless confident that we can deliver a strong second half of the year,” explained the top manager.

In addition to the purchasing behavior of the almost 53 million active Zalando customers, the presentation in Munich is likely to focus on the business-to-business (B2B) division. The Group has recently grown strongly with logistics, software and services for brand partners and retailers. In the second quarter of 2025, Zalando’s B2B sales increased by 12.2%. Among other things, the company benefited from its collaboration with the British fashion retailer Next. In business with end customers (business-to-consumer, or B2C for short), the management is increasingly relying on artificial intelligence. With an AI-driven discovery feed, Zalando wants to make the shopping experience “even more inspiring and personalized.”

Conclusion and investment solution

The strategy has been well received by analysts. Although some research houses have reduced their price targets following the latest figures, the target price for Zalando resulting from 28 ratings is EUR 39, which is around 50% higher than the current share price. For the coming year, the experts expect the e-commerce giant to achieve earnings per share of just under EUR 1.50 on average. This would increase Zalando’s profit by more than half compared to 2024. In view of this outlook, the share is not expensive with a price/earnings ratio of less than 17.

This is complemented by an appealing chart. Not only is the DAX share on its way to overcoming the downward trend mentioned at the beginning. At the same time, it is knocking on the 55-day line. Traders can speculate on an upward breakout with a mini-future long (ISIN DE000SY2EZ00). The product traded by Société Générale on Swiss DOTS participates in rising Zalando prices with a current leverage of 5.1. Important: If the Berliners cause a hangover in Munich and the share price turns downwards, disproportionate losses are to be expected.