Financial markets extended their gains in October, driven by a reduction in trade tensions between the United States and China and by confirmation of a continued supportive monetary environment. The resumption of negotiations between Washington and Beijing resulted in a one-year preliminary agreement, suspending the implementation of new tariffs and easing Chinese export restrictions on rare earth materials. This development helped restore investor confidence, boosting demand for risk assets. At the same time, the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in a context of inflation still above target but now stabilizing. This move strengthened expectations of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, although Jerome Powell\u2019s cautious remarks following the FOMC meeting reminded investors that another rate cut in December was not guaranteed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this environment, equity markets advanced in a synchronized manner during the month, though with regional disparities. In the United States, the S&P 500 gained +2.6% and the Nasdaq +4.2%, supported by monetary easing and a strong earnings season. As of end October, 82% of companies reporting results had exceeded expectations, with profits 6.4% above analyst forecasts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 2.6%, the CAC 40 gained 3.0%, while the DAX was nearly flat (+0.3%), weighed down by zero GDP growth in Germany during the third quarter. The Swiss SMI advanced 1.0%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Japan, the TOPIX surged 6.2% following the appointment of Sanae Takaichi as the country\u2019s first female Prime Minister who announced expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Finally, emerging markets also outperformed, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising 4.2%, supported by an Asian rebound. In fixed income, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.07%, while the German 10-year Bund settled at 2.63%, reflecting both easing trade tensions and continued monetary support. Among commodities, volatility remained high: gold gained 3.8%, silver rose 4.3%, while WTI oil declined 2.2%. On the currency front, the euro weakened slightly against both the U.S. dollar (\u20131.7%) and the Swiss franc (\u20130.7%). <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the United States, the political environment remains tense, with a federal government shutdown in effect since October 1st due to a budget impasse between Republicans and Democrats. However, the Senate has approved a bipartisan agreement paving the way for the reopening of federal services and the restoration of government funding through January 30, 2026, a first step before a final vote requiring only a simple majority. If the Republican-led House of Representatives also approves the measure, it will be sent to\u00a0President Donald Trump for signature, a process that could still take several days. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the economic front, U.S. resilience remains remarkable. According to the Atlanta Fed, third-quarter GDP growth could reach nearly 4%, driven by technological investment and cloud infrastructure expansion.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the partial government shutdown, the latest inflation data confirm a situation under control: prices rose 3% year-on-year in September, a high since January yet below expectations (3.1%). The 0.3% monthly increase was mainly due to a 4.1% rise in gasoline prices, while food inflation slowed, and housing costs continued to moderate. Excluding energy and food, core inflation rose only 0.2%, reinforcing the view of a gradual and sustainable disinflation trend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the euro area, growth remains moderate but stable: GDP expanded by 1.3% in Q3, slightly below the previous quarter but above forecasts. Inflation, contained at 2.1% in October, supports the scenario of an economic stabilization. Leading indicators also point to gradual improvement: the composite PMI climbed to 52.2, a 17-month high, driven by Germany\u2019s recovery and the strength of the services sector (PMI: 52.6). France, by contrast, remains a laggard, weighed down by contracting industrial activity and a fragile political climate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Recent data confirm a controlled global slowdown, underpinned by solid fundamentals. In the United States, growth remains resilient despite political tensions, and the Federal Reserve has resumed its monetary easing cycle, which should help improve liquidity within the economy. The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have so far had a limited impact on prices, allowing inflation to remain contained. As the third-quarter earnings season draws to a close, S&P 500 profits are expected to rise by +10% in Q3 and +13% for the year, confirming the underlying strength of the U.S. corporate sector. However, elevated valuations, fueled by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, have raised concerns of a potential bubble, reminiscent of the early 2000s. In addition, the persistence of certain inflationary pressures and signs of weakness in the labor market call for a measured and cautious approach. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
We therefore maintain a constructive but neutral stance on equities, supported by broad sector diversification. The industrial and consumer discretionary sectors remain favored, driven by strong demand and solid earnings visibility, while health care and consumer staples stay underweighted. Greater selectivity within the technology sector is also advised. Overall, both the U.S. and European economies continue to show steady momentum, with no immediate signs of recession. In fixed income, we remain slightly underweight sovereign debt, favoring short-to-medium durations and high-quality corporate credit. The high-yield segment is represented but managed with a conservative risk approach. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the alternatives front, we remain overweight gold, supported by declining U.S. real rates and robust physical demand; the precious metal continues to serve as the most effective hedge against market shocks. Finally, we stay underweight the U.S. dollar, despite its recent rebound. A less favorable rate differential and persistent investor skepticism toward U.S. policy are likely to weigh further on the greenback. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In an environment where markets fluctuate between resilience and uncertainty, we remain convinced that a measured and selective approach is the best course of action. Our focus is clear: to stay invested, but with discernment, prioritizing quality and diversification in an environment that remains demanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
__
Ce document est une publication marketing. Il est fourni \u00e0 titre d’information uniquement et ne constitue pas une recherche ou une analyse financi\u00e8re, une offre, un appel public \u00e0 l’\u00e9pargne, un conseil en investissement, une recommandation ou une invitation \u00e0 acheter, souscrire, d\u00e9tenir ou vendre tout instrument financier et\/ou \u00e0 fournir un service financier. En outre, ce document ne prend pas en consid\u00e9ration la situation personnelle, les objectifs d’investissement ou les connaissances, les besoins et la classification de toute personne susceptible de recevoir ce document, sauf indication contraire. Aucune v\u00e9rification n’est effectu\u00e9e par Banque Heritage SA quant au caract\u00e8re appropri\u00e9 et\/ou ad\u00e9quat des informations mises \u00e0 disposition. Les risques g\u00e9n\u00e9raux li\u00e9s aux services financiers et aux investissements sont expliqu\u00e9s dans la brochure de l’Association suisse des banquiers sur les risques li\u00e9s au n\u00e9goce d’instruments financiers [www.swissbanking.ch]. Les risques sp\u00e9cifiques li\u00e9s aux instruments financiers mentionn\u00e9s dans ce document sont d\u00e9crits dans les \u00e9ventuels prospectus et fiches d’information de base (KID), qui sont disponibles gratuitement aupr\u00e8s de Banque Heritage SA. Toute d\u00e9cision d’investissement doit \u00eatre fond\u00e9e sur une \u00e9tude pr\u00e9alable de la documentation et notamment du prospectus et de la fiche d’information de base, le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant. Cette pr\u00e9sentation et son contenu ne doivent pas \u00eatre distribu\u00e9s, transmis ou visualis\u00e9s par une personne dans une juridiction o\u00f9 la distribution, la transmission ou la visualisation de ce document serait ill\u00e9gale en vertu des lois sur les valeurs mobili\u00e8res ou autres lois de cette juridiction ou de toute autre juridiction. Ce document n’est pas le r\u00e9sultat d’une analyse financi\u00e8re au sens de la Directive bancaire suisse sur l’ind\u00e9pendance de la recherche financi\u00e8re, qui ne s’applique pas \u00e0 cette publication. En cons\u00e9quence, les opinions exprim\u00e9es dans ce document doivent \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme des commentaires de march\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme, \u00e0 des fins d’information uniquement. En tant que telles, les opinions exprim\u00e9es dans ce document sont uniquement indicatives et peuvent \u00eatre sujettes \u00e0 des changements fr\u00e9quents sans pr\u00e9avis. Chaque personne doit faire sa propre analyse ind\u00e9pendante des risques (y compris juridiques, r\u00e9glementaires et fiscaux), avec des conseillers professionnels si n\u00e9cessaire, avant d’investir dans un titre, un instrument financier ou un march\u00e9 financier mentionn\u00e9 dans le pr\u00e9sent document. Les investisseurs doivent en particulier garder \u00e0 l’esprit que les performances pass\u00e9es ne doivent pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme une indication ou une garantie des performances actuelles ou futures. Les informations fournies sont bas\u00e9es sur des sources jug\u00e9es fiables. Toutefois, Banque Heritage SA ne garantit pas leur exhaustivit\u00e9 ou leur exactitude et n’accepte aucune responsabilit\u00e9 pour toute perte ou tout dommage r\u00e9sultant de leur utilisation. Toutes les informations et opinions ainsi que les prix, \u00e9valuations de march\u00e9 et calculs contenus dans ce document sont susceptibles d’\u00eatre modifi\u00e9s sans pr\u00e9avis. Son contenu est destin\u00e9 au seul destinataire et ne doit pas \u00eatre reproduit, publi\u00e9, diffus\u00e9 ou divulgu\u00e9 \u00e0 toute autre personne sans l’accord pr\u00e9alable de Banque Heritage SA. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie, expresse ou implicite, n’est faite par Banque Heritage SA concernant le mat\u00e9riel contenu dans cette pr\u00e9sentation. A l’exception de la responsabilit\u00e9 l\u00e9gale qui ne peut \u00eatre exclue, la Banque, ses administrateurs, dirigeants, employ\u00e9s, conseillers et agents n’acceptent express\u00e9ment aucune responsabilit\u00e9 quant \u00e0 l’exhaustivit\u00e9 du mat\u00e9riel contenu dans cette pr\u00e9sentation, ou toute opinion contenue dans ce document, et n’assument aucune responsabilit\u00e9 quelle qu’elle soit en relation avec l’utilisation de toute information contenue dans cette pr\u00e9sentation.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve confirms the easing of monetary policy. Together with the easing of geopolitical tensions, this supports risk assets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1438152,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1442369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion-leaders-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1442369","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1442369"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1442369\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1442370,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1442369\/revisions\/1442370"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1438152"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1442369"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1442369"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1442369"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}