{"id":1444888,"date":"2026-04-16T10:18:27","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T08:18:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/?p=1444888"},"modified":"2026-04-16T10:18:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T08:18:31","slug":"hormuz-the-bottleneck-and-the-supply-chain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/news\/hormuz-the-bottleneck-and-the-supply-chain","title":{"rendered":"Hormuz: the bottleneck and the supply chain"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It is also a bottleneck for fertilisers, particularly for two of the three main types: nitrogen-based fertilisers (urea, ammonia and their derivatives, which are major consumers of natural gas), and phosphorus-based fertilisers. This is why the six-week blockade of the strait \u2013 even if we can hope it will ease soon \u2013 portends not only immediate energy difficulties, but also delayed food supply tensions. In some countries, the combination of these two disruptions could even lead to rising political tensions with unpredictable consequences, much like the \u2018Arab Spring\u2019 of 2011, triggered in part by soaring food prices in the wake of the 2008 crisis1<\/sup>. Which economies are currently particularly at risk from this perspective?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An analysis of agricultural vulnerabilities linked to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz highlights India and Brazil first and foremost. These countries are, in fact, major importers of fertilisers produced in the Persian Gulf. According to North Dakota State University2<\/sup>, 54% of the nitrogen fertilisers imported by India pass through the Strait of Hormuz, as do 45% of Brazil\u2019s urea imports, an essential component for the crops of this agricultural giant. This dependence on fertilisers from the Gulf is even higher than 70% in the case of Australia \u2013 but its wealth makes it significantly less vulnerable than the two countries mentioned above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sulphur, a by-product of the oil industry, is another raw material used in agriculture that is produced in abundance in the Gulf. Indispensable for manufacturing the sulphuric acid needed to produce phosphate fertilisers, almost half of the world\u2019s seaborne sulphur comes from Gulf countries. A shortage of this ingredient directly affects major phosphate fertiliser-producing countries such as Morocco, the world\u2019s leading exporter of phosphate products, and China. Not only does local agriculture suffer, but the foreign trade of these fertiliser exporters is also affected, particularly in the case of Morocco, which is heavily dependent on these exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the countries most immediately affected by these disruptions are poorer nations \u2013 in particular India, Bangladesh, Egypt and Sudan3<\/sup> \u2013 wealthier countries are not immune either. The United States, for example, is a major producer of phosphate fertilisers, dependent on the global availability of sulphur. But above all, if yields in the major agricultural exporting countries fall due to reduced fertiliser use, and if the cost of fertilisers rises globally, the entire planet will eventually be affected, directly or indirectly. Europe, for example, which imports large quantities of Brazilian soya and maize, could suffer from supply pressures on these commodities when it needs to purchase them to feed its domestic livestock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the short term, crisis management measures will need to be put in place to assist the hardest-hit countries \u2013 often the most vulnerable \u2013 otherwise political unrest is a real concern. In the medium term, a new framework for managing reliance on imported fertilisers will need to be outlined, just as was done for Europe\u2019s oil and gas supplies following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Europe is therefore convening a meeting on 13 April to draw up a \u2018fertiliser\u2019 plan. In the longer term, the creation of strategic reserves of agricultural inputs will certainly be discussed, as well as the establishment of a sustainable production chain for nitrogen fertilisers. Fertilisers are, in fact, no less strategic \u2013 as we are bitterly discovering, first with Ukraine and now with Hormuz \u2013 than fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The blockade of the strait is thus reshuffling the deck in unexpected ways. A new chapter in the history of agriculture is opening up as a result of a war which, originally, had no agricultural aims \u2013 but which, from the outset, smelled of sulphur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

__<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimers
<\/strong>These data and opinions, as well as the sectors mentioned, are provided for information purposes only and, as such, do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security, nor do they constitute investment advice or financial analysis. The opinions are those of the author and do not in any way engage the liability of LFDE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

__<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1<\/sup>Food Security and Sociopolitical Stability, Oxford, 2013
2<\/sup>https:\/\/ageconsearch.umn.edu\/record\/396250?v=pdf<\/a>
3<\/sup>Food and Agriculture Organization, 26 March 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is not only ships laden with oil, gas or industrial products that pass through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1437614,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1444888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion-leaders-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1444888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1444888"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1444888\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1444889,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1444888\/revisions\/1444889"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1437614"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1444888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1444888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1444888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}