On April 8, investors held their breath. Would Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu come to their senses? Are the mullahs in Tehran completely losing their minds? The sigh of relief following the surprising ceasefire between the USA and Iran feels like a liberating blow for the global markets. US equity futures are soaring and the price of WTI and Brent oil is easing significantly. The first algorithms are beginning to reprice the risk. The million dollar question is now: Where are the real opportunities, where do returns only appear to be enticing? <\/p>\n\n
The markets love nothing more than predictability, and this is precisely what is now being restored, at least temporarily. Over the next few days, cyclical sectors in particular will come back into focus. It is the start of a classic “relief rally”, as experienced market participants know best. And as is so often the case, those who are positioned early will benefit disproportionately. Airlines and cruise companies are at the center of this movement. Both sectors have suffered massively in recent weeks from rising fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Falling oil prices act as a double lever here: lower costs on the one hand and rising demand expectations on the other. Airlines can quickly improve their margins, while cruise operators benefit from a renewed desire to travel. However, the real potential is probably only just beginning. The “fear sells” of recent weeks are now turning into “greed trades”. Open-end mini-futures and longer-dated calls on these stocks are very likely to be rewarded. <\/p>\n\n
At the same time, a second, at least equally exciting playing field is opening up: the oil market itself. The elimination of the “Gulf War III Premium” is likely to put structural pressure on the price of crude oil. This is precisely where to start. Traders position themselves for falling prices with the help of futures, options or structured products. If one analyzes the open interest and volumes, the price of crude oil (WTI) is likely to fall to around USD 70. The decisive factor for traders is not maximum aggressiveness, but prudent risk management of the strikes. Short puts still offer good premiums, depending on the expiry date and strike. Long put options could turn a further fall into attractive yield boosters. At the same time, discipline remains the top priority, as even a relaxed market can show volatile swings in the short term. It is important that common sense regains the upper hand in the Oval Office. Only then can the call options on “Gulf War Peace” develop sustainably. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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