The word “resilience” is mainly known from coaching seminars and health programs. It now seems to be the secret motto of the US stock markets. While the trials and tribulations from the White House are not getting any smaller and Iran is taking the world hostage, surprisingly little is happening on Wall Street. There is no collective sell-off and no panic-stricken running away. Instead, there is merely a slight twitch, a brief setback – and then all index prices go up again. <\/p>\n\n
Since the outbreak of Gulf War III, the S&P 500 is up 9.8%, the Nasdaq-100 is up 16% and even the rather sluggish Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 5.5% compared to 30 days ago. While the world fears a recession as oil prices nearly double, Wall Street prices seem to be largely ignoring it. Resilience par excellence: the ability to adapt to new realities while remaining stable. <\/p>\n\n
It is therefore worth taking an analytical look at the hustle and bustle: Institutional investors are currently keeping their feet still. According to the AAII Sentiment Survey, around 33% of private investors are bullish, 34% are explicitly bearish and the remaining third are neutral. It is striking that 44% of US private investors state that equities are currently overvalued. Hedge funds, on the other hand, are doing really well. Capital flows in the 1st quarter are at a record high of USD 45 billion – the strongest movement since 2007. <\/p>\n\n
And we are already experiencing d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu. Similar to 2007, the mood of US consumers could collapse in the coming months due to high energy prices. Inflation could be derailed and all the recession genie could be let out of the bottle. But there is only one nation that is particularly resilient and has its own sources of oil and gas: the USA. So if you are looking for robust equity exposure, you will paradoxically find it in US equities. Preferably in those with good free cash flows and low debt. Caution is advised for the rest of the money. Resistance to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is more than ever the linchpin of all scenarios. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Despite Iran taking hostages, the free world and record high crude oil prices, US stock markets are rising. Is this a coincidence or a sign of real stability? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":1445255,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[222],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1445274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trading-desk-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1445274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1445274"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1445274\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1445275,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1445274\/revisions\/1445275"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1445255"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1445274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1445274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1445274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}