{"id":1447487,"date":"2026-08-26T10:15:12","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T08:15:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/news\/gold-off-to-the-mountains"},"modified":"2026-08-26T13:15:03","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T11:15:03","slug":"gold-off-to-the-mountains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/news\/gold-off-to-the-mountains","title":{"rendered":"Gold: Off to the mountains!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Starting tomorrow, the financial world will be watching Jackson Hole in the U.S. state of Wyoming with bated breath. Against the monumental backdrop of the Rocky Mountains, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is hosting its economic symposium through Saturday. Dozens of central bankers, politicians, scholars, and economists are traveling to this long-standing event, the first edition of which took place in Vail, Colorado, in 1978. Once again this year, the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve is the undisputed \u201cheadliner.\u201d This is all the more true since Kevin Warsh is attending the symposium as Fed Chairman for the first time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dissent within the Fed<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

His predecessors have repeatedly used the event as an opportunity to send important monetary policy signals. Ahead of his debut at the conference venue, located more than 2,000 meters above sea level, Warsh himself has caused quite a stir. He would like to use the \u201cthin air of Jackson, Wyoming\u201d to focus on the big questions, Warsh said after the most recent Fed meeting. At the end of July, the Open Market Committee had gone into its summer recess with the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Given the persistent inflation, there was anything but unanimity within the committee. According to the recently published meeting minutes, three members voted in favor of a rate hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Against the backdrop of such hawkish signals, the latest developments in the precious metals markets are surprising at first glance. Shortly after the Fed meeting, gold surged sharply. It is now trading at just under 15% above the level seen at the end of July. Previously, fears of tighter U.S. monetary policy, combined with profit-taking, had held the yellow metal back. Compared to the all-time high reached at the end of January, the gold price had fallen by as much as nearly 30%. Markets are now betting that the hawks will not prevail and that the Fed will maintain a moderate course. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the Open Market Committee will not tighten policy until the end of the year at the earliest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key Measure of Inflation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In the coming hours and days, this scenario\u2014based on money market conditions\u2014is likely to begin to unfold. This afternoon (2:30 p.m.), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the Core PCE Price Index for July 2026. This measure of inflation, which excludes spending on food and energy, is given particular attention by the Fed. On average, economists expect the PCE index for the month in question to be 3.6% higher than the previous year\u2019s figure. This would mean inflation would be 0.3 percentage points higher than in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his speech in Jackson Hole, Kevin Warsh will likely have little choice but to address the latest inflation figures. To date, the new head of the Fed has yet to outline a clear strategy for combating inflation. One thing is certain: U.S. President Donald Trump wants nothing more than lower interest rates. And this is precisely where a key catalyst for gold\u2019s future performance lies. Since the precious metal itself does not generate any income, falling yields are seen as favorable, while a rising interest rate environment puts the brakes on the price of a troy ounce. Furthermore, gold is and remains a safe-haven asset. Whether it\u2019s the U.S.\u2019s spiraling debt, the precarious situation in the Middle East, or the upcoming U.S. midterm elections\u2014there is no shortage of reasons for this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Solution<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

From a technical analysis perspective, the recent gains have caused the price per troy ounce to break above a downward trend that had lasted several months. Most recently, the price also managed to break above the 200-day moving average. This opens up the range around USD 4,900 as the next key level. If today\u2019s inflation data meets expectations or even comes in lower than forecast, gold could see another surge. Should the Fed Chair strike even a subtly dovish tone on Friday, it would likely reinforce the rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders can capitalize on this bullish scenario, for example, with the long mini-future MGO3MT<\/a><\/strong>. Leonteq currently prices this contract with a leverage of 6.6. At USD 3,994.6704, the stop-loss is just under 14% below the gold price. Caution: If U.S. inflation comes in stronger than expected and\/or Kevin Warsh suggests a tightening of monetary policy, the precious metal could face a sharper correction\u2014in which case, significant losses would be expected on the Mini-Future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation data from the U.S. and a speech by the Fed chair in the Rocky Mountains\u2014the precious metal is at a crossroads.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[222],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1447487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-trading-desk-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1447487"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447487\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1447489,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447487\/revisions\/1447489"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1447487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1447487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payoff.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1447487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}