Trading Desk
Silver: An Exciting Constellation
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Wolfgang Hagl
Redaktor
Following the sharp correction of recent months, the precious metal may have found a bottom—most recently, silver even made another attempt to rise.
Silver is a key component of technological progress. Due to its exceptional electrical conductivity and thermal stability, this precious metal is used in a wide range of technical applications. The spectrum ranges from electric cars and photovoltaic modules to semiconductors and power grids. At the same time, silver is in demand as jewelry and an investment. This combination of factors leads to a chronic shortage. According to figures from the Silver Institute (SI), global demand has exceeded supply in each of the past five years.
Sharp Correction
Speculation that the AI boom could further exacerbate the notorious shortage, combined with the general rush into precious metals, sparked a historic rally in silver. The surge peaked on January 29, 2026, at an all-time high of USD 121.64 per troy ounce. Just under six months later, the same amount of the white metal costs less than half that price. Along with gold, silver has corrected significantly. In addition to the long-overdue consolidation, the war in Iran and the resulting tightening of monetary policy have weighed on the commodity sector. The oil price shock triggered by the conflict has fueled inflation and forced central banks to adopt a more restrictive stance. Since precious metals do not generate any current income, rising interest rates are inherently bad for prices—and the reverse is also true.
Recently, the situation has stabilized, and silver has found a bottom in the USD 55 range. From this level, the metal has now begun an upward move and is approaching the round number of USD 60. Should it succeed in breaking through this hurdle, the path to USD 65 would be clear from a technical analysis perspective. Fundamentally, the ongoing shortage is supporting silver. While the price rally is likely to weigh on industrial demand and cause the deficit to shrink accordingly, the Silver Institute nevertheless expects that supply will remain insufficient in 2026 as well.
Central Banks as the Pacesetters
Monetary policy also plays a role. The ECB will kick off the next round of decisions this Thursday. For now, economists do not expect another interest rate hike in the eurozone. Money markets are also pricing in an unchanged key rate for the Fed meeting scheduled for next week. According to this outlook, the Federal Reserve would not tighten policy until after the summer break in September. A lot can happen between now and then. Above all, the situation in the Middle East and on the oil markets will determine inflation and, consequently, monetary policy expectations.
Investment solutions
All in all, following a correction and a possible bottoming out, this could be a good time to enter the silver market on a speculative basis. The mini-future offers a short-term long position MSIBIV offers a short-term long position. Vontobel currently quotes a leverage of 4.8 for this contract. The stop-loss is set at USD 48.05, which is 18.8% below the price of the volatile underlying asset. Caution: If the upward rally turns out to be a flash in the pan, disproportionately large losses could result.
Leonteq offers a less risky alternative on the BX Swiss. With the Callable Barrier Reverse Convertible LTAEAZ , investors receive a quarterly coupon payment of 9.00% per annum. As long as the price of silver does not fall to or below the barrier of USD 34.29, the issuer will repay the full principal at the end of September 2027. If the current buffer of 42.2% proves insufficient, the investment would be fully exposed to the risk of silver price fluctuations.
