The PISA Tower

• Enguerrand Artaz
  Strategist
  La Financière de l’Échiquier (LFDE)

It must be said that France’s ranking, already less than flattering in the 2022 survey, has deteriorated further. But France is far from being the only country affected by the decline in academic and functional skills. Having already fallen sharply in 2022 compared with the 2018 study, skills in mathematics and reading in particular have declined significantly across the OECD. Between 2015 and 2025, the decline amounted to 28 points in reading and 22 points in maths, which, according to OECD standards, is equivalent to one to one and a half years’ less learning.

Numerous causes have been cited: the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, the ubiquity of screens, and lower standards in the teaching of fundamental knowledge… The reasons for this collapse will need to be the subject of a detailed analysis. However, it is also important to consider the potential long-term consequences of such a phenomenon, particularly in economic terms. The work of researchers Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann¹, as well as the update to their research published in 2023 by Gabriel Heller-Sahlgren and Henrik Jordahl², has demonstrated the long-term correlation between the population’s cognitive skills and economic growth.

They identify two distinct mechanisms. On the one hand, the minimum skill level of the majority of pupils, which influences employability, the ability to adopt new technologies and, ultimately, average productivity. On the other hand, the upper end of the distribution – in other words, the skills of the most gifted pupils – which has a greater impact on innovation, research and technological entrepreneurship. The 2023 update to the research also concludes on this point: the proportion of high-achieving pupils shows a stronger correlation with long-term growth than the proportion of the population reaching a minimum level of competence alone.

From this perspective, the good news from the 2025 PISA study is that the proportion of high-achieving pupils has changed little since 2015. Nevertheless, a decline in certain skills has been evident even among the highest-performing deciles, particularly with regard to reading literacy. Furthermore, the OECD highlights a decline in the skills – in reading literacy – that are most essential in the age of AI: evaluating information, the ability to make connections between multiple sources, and critical thinking. The risk appears to be twofold: on the one hand, a decline in employability and in the average productivity of the population, all the more so if the skills that are deteriorating are those that would enable people to complement AI, rather than be replaced by it; on the other hand, a decline in skills even amongst the highest-performing deciles, with the risk of seeing a fall in the proportion of high-achieving pupils, who are most strongly correlated with long-term growth.However, some qualifications are in order. Firstly, the PISA survey measures only part of human capital and cannot therefore provide an exhaustive measure of future productivity. Secondly, the level of skills measured at the age of 15 is not set in stone and can be improved upon in subsequent years and through vocational training. Finally, trends over a single decade are insufficient to make precise calculations of long-term impact. Nevertheless, educational performance cannot be viewed solely from a social or societal perspective. Its long-term economic impact is real, and recent trends in many countries call for urgent attention.

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¹Do better schools lead to more growth? Cognitive skills, economic outcomes, and causation, Eric A. Hanushek, Ludger Woessmann, 14 July 2012.

²Test scores and economic growth: update and extension, Gabriel Heller-Shalgren, Henrik Jordahl, 19 January 2023

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Disclaimers: These data and opinions from LFDE are provided for information purposes only and, as such, do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security, nor do they constitute investment advice or financial analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results and is not consistent over time.