Opinion Leaders
2025 World Climate Conference: What to expect from COP30
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Paul Drummond
Climate & Environment Research Lead
Redwheel
COP30 is being billed as the implementation COP, signalling a shift in focus from broad pledges to delivery. However, expectations for material advancements are muted given shifting geopolitics.
There will be four core areas monitor:
1. The ambition and ‘investibiltiy’ of new NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions)
New NDC to 2035 for countries and regions covering two-thirds of the world’s emissions remain outstanding. This includes China, India and the EU, but we can expect these to be submitted in the coming weeks or at COP. The targets set by these NDCs, and any detail on how they will be delivered, are crucial to understanding the global landscape in the absence of the USA. While they are not likely to be compatible with a 1.5 degree pathway, we can expect a step up in ambition from China and India in particular.
2. Baku-to-Belém Roadmap
Designed as a blueprint to mobilise up to $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 in climate finance flows to developing economies, the roadmap will be presented at COP30. As its recommendations are likely to be non-binding and require implementation across a wide range of actors with competing interests, it is likely to be criticised as too weak by beneficiaries.
3. Adaptation package and metrics
Adaptation is rapidly rising up the global agenda. Setting clear indicators for progress toward the 11 adaptation-related targets set at COP29 will be a core focus, with 100 indicators developed by technical experts set for negotiation. Developments are likely here, but those focused on finance flows are likely to face the greatest challenge.
4. Side-agreements
Over recent years much of the action has moved outside of the formal negotiations and into bilateral or other coalition agreements. Announcements made outside the formal COP processes are likely to be even more important as countries position themselves in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
