Trading Desk
Bitcoin: Dark realities
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Martin Raab
Investment-Stratege
The recent price fall of around 36% has made it clear that Bitcoin is not supported by fundamental factors, but only by fantasy and large wallet owners. Will the lights go out at Christmas?
Anyone who trades shares and other financial products professionally knows that price movements are not a one-way street. This reality is now also rapidly becoming apparent in the camp of crypto disciples who were previously spoiled by success. Panic selling, margin calls, desperate comments with the hashtag #BTC and slogans of perseverance from Bitcoin brokers characterize the reports on the latest Bitcoin crash.
Whether based on gut instinct or confidential warnings, the first professionals sold on a large scale at prices of around USD 120,000. The next wave of selling followed a few days after “The Crypto’s Richest Man” Changpeng Zhao reached an attractive settlement in the US criminal proceedings in October. He paid USD 4.3 billion to the US Department of Justice. His actual wealth remains nebulous. Estimates range from USD 70 million to a staggering USD 70 billion, spread across various wallets and cryptocurrencies.
In the meantime, the value of numerous gambling portfolios with Bitcoin derivatives has also evaporated. Bitcoin futures, options and leverage products with a leverage of up to 10 are available on the market. The brutal reversal of -36% within around 20 trading days triggered mass margin calls and heightened awareness. There are no fundamental factors with Bitcoin.
Rather, BTC prices depend on the activities of the largest crypto wallets in terms of value, in which dizzying amounts are stored. These often have a connection to China or Hong Kong – be it via exchanges such as Binance & Co. or the old mining guard from the time when China dominated global BTC mining. It is also striking that the US president’s family now holds very large wallets. According to Reuters, the Trumps made over USD 800 million from issuing crypto assets in the first half of 2025 alone. The coins sold were presumably exchanged for Bitcoin and are likely to continue to play a dominant role in the family’s portfolio.
Conspiratorial voices are therefore warning that Beijing could relatively easily play another joker in the “trade talks” with the US. Pressure on the BTC price. There is no regulated circuit breaker for Bitcoin. So will we soon see USD 70,000 or even four-digit prices? Then the lights will definitely go out for many – and at Christmas of all times.
