Trading Desk
Ferrari: Back in the race
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Christian Ingerl
Redaktor
The luxury sports car manufacturer has regained the confidence of the market with surprisingly robust figures. Rising margins, a well-filled order book and new models have allowed the Italians to accelerate again after months of share price weakness. The share is worth a look.
When the Formula 1 engines roar again on March 8, 2026, all eyes will not only be on the new season, but especially on Maranello. The Scuderia has recently been under pressure both in sporting and strategic terms. But just in time for the restart Ferrari seems to be back on track – on the racetrack with renewed self-confidence, but above all operationally and on the stock market with new momentum.
Robust figures
The luxury sports car manufacturer clearly exceeded expectations in the final quarter. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 9% to EUR 700 million, well above the analysts’ consensus of around EUR 668 million. Sales climbed by 4% to EUR 1.8 billion, although deliveries fell by 173 vehicles to 3,152 units. For the full year 2025, sales totaled 13,640 vehicles, 112 fewer than in the previous year. However, the decline was strategically intentional in order to manage the model changeover.
The quality of revenue is crucial. Ferrari succeeded in further increasing average sales prices, driven by a strong model mix, individualization and limited special models. Models such as the EUR 240,000 Amalfi and the EUR 460,000 849 Testarossa top the order books. The order backlog now extends to the end of 2027, underlining the Group’s visibility and pricing power.
The operating performance is also impressive on the earnings side. In 2025, Ferrari achieved an EBITDA margin of 38.8%, a figure that other manufacturers can only dream of. For 2026, CEO Benedetto Vigna is forecasting an adjusted EBITDA of more than EUR 2.93 billion, which would correspond to an increase of at least 6%. The margin is expected to improve to at least 39%. Industrial free cash flow exceeded the EUR 1.5 billion mark for the first time in 2025, an increase of a whopping 50%.
Adapted e-strategy
The strategic fine-tuning of electrification is also noteworthy. While Ferrari previously targeted an EV share of 40% by 2030, the new plan envisages only one fifth fully electric models, 40% hybrids and 40% combustion engines. The first all-electric Ferrari, the “Luce”, will be presented in Rome on May 25. According to Vigna, customer feedback has been very positive. A total of five new models are to be launched in 2026. Regionally, Europe remains the most important market, accounting for just under half of sales. In the USA, the share of sales is likely to fall temporarily due to new model launches. In China, which has been weaker recently, the management expects sales to stabilize as model variants in greater demand will be offered in the future.
Share on rebound course
On the stock market, the figures mark a turnaround. Following a fall in the share price of almost a third since October, triggered by medium-term targets that were perceived as conservative and uncertainties surrounding tariffs and China, the share price rose by double digits after publication of the figures. At around EUR 318, the share price is still well below the high near EUR 500, but the operating momentum is once again in the share’s favor.
The analyst consensus rates the share as a buy and sees a 12-month price target of EUR 376.50 – around 18% potential. Deutsche Bank and RBC have recently raised their price targets further and place the fair value well above the EUR 400 mark. In view of an EBITDA margin of almost 40%, an order backlog until 2027 and the upcoming electrification offensive, Ferrari remains less a car manufacturer than a global luxury stock.
Investment solutions
So when the Formula 1 starting lights go out on March 8, it’s not just about points in the constructors’ championship for Ferrari. It is about the reputation of a brand that has shown that it can accelerate again even after a sharp correction – both on the tarmac and on the capital market. If you want to play this positive scenario and even increase the pace, choose the long mini-future MRAAFT from Leonteq. The leverage is currently 5.3, the distance to the knock-out at USD 309.0030 is 18.5%. Slightly less speculative is the identical product MRAATT. Here the knock-out is just under 30% away, but the leverage is also somewhat lower at 3.3.
A sideways speculation on Ferrari also seems interesting to us for conservative investors. The Barrier Reverse Convertible RRAAAV from Bank Vontobel would be ideal for this. The security, which matures in mid-November 2026, promises a maximum profit opportunity of 9.7% or 12.9% p.a. respectively. The product also has a risk buffer of 29.3%.
