Heineken: A pint to the “Three Lions”

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  Wolfgang Hagl
  Redaktor

Who will face Spain in the World Cup final? That question will be answered tonight with the match between England and Argentina. Long before the kickoff for this classic match at 8:00 p.m. British time, pubs across the island are likely to be filling up. In that regard, Heineken is set for another evening of booming business. The Dutch brewing group owns Star Pub, a network of about 2,400 pubs. Even during the group stage, fans’ thirst in these pubs was enormous: During the three matches played by the English team, beer sales exceeded the level of the same period last year by 60%. Many supporters of the “Three Lions” are reaching for lager. Sales of this beer style increased by more than three-quarters during the group stage matches.

Behind

In line with this, Heineken is mounting a counterattack on the stock market. Over the past three months, the sector’s No. 2 has posted a price gain of more than one-tenth. Heineken is now challenging a downtrend that began a little over three years ago. The company—which, in addition to its eponymous core brand, also includes global brands such as Amstel and Tiger—has fallen significantly behind the number one player in the global beer market; shares of its Belgian rival, AB InBev, are trading at their highest level since early 2020.

The performance gap is no coincidence: AB InBev is generating an operating margin (based on adjusted EBITDA) of 35% in a stagnant market. At Heineken, less than one in five euros in revenue was retained as operating profit in 2025. The industry giant, represented at the World Cup by its sponsor Budweiser, is also wooing investors with large-scale share buybacks. AB InBev is currently in the process of buying back its own shares in a transaction worth USD 6 billion. Heineken does have a similar program underway, but at the equivalent of around USD 1.7 billion, the buyback is significantly smaller than that of its competitor.

From Coffee to Beer

During this critical phase, Heineken is without a CEO. Earlier this year, Dolf van den Brink unexpectedly resigned and left the company in June. To fill the vacancy, company leaders are turning to a manager with no experience in brewing with hops and malt. Rafael Oliveira will take over in October. He has led the Dutch coffee and tea company JDE Peet’s since 2024. Oliveira faces major challenges. Not only does he need to develop a strategy to put Heineken back on the path to growth in terms of volume, He must also improve profitability. One possible approach could be to thin out the network of breweries, which is particularly dense in Europe.

Investment Solution

We’re not quite there yet. Nevertheless, with the new CEO set to take the helm, even more upside potential could emerge for Heineken stock. In the short term, the thirst for beer fueled by global soccer fever also bodes well for this large-cap stock. Whether the World Cup will actually have an impact on the company’s financial metrics will become clear on August 5, when Heineken releases its interim report for the first half of the year. Analysts expect that sales volume (on an organic basis) has declined slightly. At the same time, the consensus forecast for adjusted operating profit points to moderate growth of 3%.

The bar is set low, which is why a positive surprise is certainly possible. ZKB offers trading instruments that fit this bullish scenario. Among other things, it trades the Long Mini-Future on SIX Swiss Exchange IHE0GZ on Heineken. Currently, the product has a leverage of 5.8. The stop-loss is set at EUR 64.39, which is 15% below the underlying’s price. Warning: If the brewery stock turns downward, there is a risk of a “hangover” in the form of disproportionately large losses.