Givaudan: Time for the new fragrance note

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  Wolfgang Hagl
  Redaktor

A fragile economic environment, cautious consumers and constant tariff threats and announcements from the White House – this mixture led Givaudan into the stock market in 2025. The shares of the fragrance and flavor manufacturer are currently trading almost 17% below last year’s closing price. This makes it one of the three weakest SMI stocks. Givaudan has recently been able to improve its share price somewhat. In the CHF 3,200 range, the large cap turned tentatively upwards. There can be no talk of a trend reversal. However, it is quite conceivable that Givaudan will make up ground in the SMI ranking in the remaining three months of the 2025 stock market year.

Trip to North America

What is certain is that the Geneva-based company is making a strong pitch to analysts and investors. On Monday and Tuesday, the management was on a “field trip” in the USA. A roadshow will follow today and tomorrow in the Canadian cities of Montreal and Toronto. To coincide with the trip to North America, Givaudan announced the acquisition of US rival Belle Aire Creations at the beginning of the month. The Chicago-based company’s flavors and fragrances are used in products such as skin creams, candles, disinfectants and cat litter. In 2024, Belle Aire Creations would have increased Givaudan’s sales by around CHF 65 million on a pro forma basis. In a press release, the domestic group directly links the transaction to its “Strategy 2030”. At the end of August, Givaudan presented its plans for the next five years. Among other things, they envisage greater customer proximity, including a stronger focus on local and regional clients.

Above all, the aim is to achieve sustainable growth. Specifically, CEO Gilles Andrier wants to increase sales on a comparable basis by an average of 4% to 6% per year in the period from 2026 to 2030. He is therefore raising the bar slightly compared to the current target of 4% to 5%. More than 12% of revenue is to be retained in free cash flow. Andrier will only be implementing the new strategic plan for a short time. When he retires on March 1, 2026, an era will come to an end at Givaudan. Andrier has been at the helm for more than two decades. From 2005, the Frenchman drove Givaudan’s rise to become the global market leader. In 2024, the Group employed 16,900 people – 11,000 more than at the end of 2024. In the same period, sales almost tripled to more than CHF 7.4 billion, while market capitalization increased by a factor of around 6.3 to almost CHF 37 billion.

Successor with experience

These figures show what a remarkable legacy Christian Stammkoetter is taking on. The future CEO of Givaudan has no shortage of experience. The German has been working in the consumer sector for more than a quarter of a century. He is currently responsible for the Asia, Middle East and Africa region at French dairy giant Danone, with 25,000 employees and a turnover of EUR 4.7 billion. Gilles Andrier’s first priority will be to meet expectations for the third quarter of 2025. Givaudan will present its sales figures on October 14. According to a consensus compiled by the company, analysts on average expect the Group to have increased sales by 3.9% on a comparable basis from July to September 2025. This would have slowed growth by 130 basis points compared to the second quarter.

Investment Solution

After Givaudan missed its half-year estimates, the bar is now set significantly lower. In this respect, the chances of a positive surprise are good. In addition, the group continues to beat the drum loudly. The calendar is well filled with roadshows and other investor events beyond the presentation of figures. Looking ahead to 2026, the upcoming change in management bodes well for the stock. Christian Stammkoetter is likely to try to quickly make his mark and could lead the large cap out of its stock market slump in his own way. The Long Mini-Future NGIVSU offers traders the opportunity to build up a position now. The UBS product participates in a price increase at Givaudan with a leverage of currently 5.6.

Caution: If the tentative rebound fizzles out and Givaudan remains caught in a downward trend, disproportionate losses are likely.