Trading Desk
Hochtief: The new industry winner
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Christian Ingerl
Redaktor
Data centers, defence projects and a possible rise to the DAX have recently driven the share price up sharply. Following the recent setback, the question now arises as to whether the share still offers further potential despite its high valuation.
Beyond the booming chip stocks that have symbolized the AI hype on the stock markets so far, companies from traditional industries are now also getting caught up in the upward pull. Hochtief is a good example of this. Driven by investments in data centers and defence infrastructure, the share price has risen by around 190% over the past twelve months. According to the index strategists at Deutsche Bank, the industrial stock is therefore within reach of a Fast Entry at the upcoming June review. This would be Hochtief’s first entry into the DAX.
Booming business
It is no coincidence that a construction company appears so high up in the DAX ranking. AI not only needs chips, but also concrete, steel, cooling systems, transformer stations, security architecture and network connections. The German government wants to at least double domestic data center capacity by 2030. At the same time, significantly higher funding for infrastructure and defense has been on the agenda in Germany and Europe since the turn of the century. Germany’s special funds for infrastructure and climate neutrality amount to EUR 500 billion by 2036, and defense spending in Europe continues to rise sharply. This is an unusually favorable environment for a company like Hochtief, which works precisely at the interface between digital, civil and military infrastructure.
Today, Hochtief is much more than an old-school German construction group. The company has risen to become a global infrastructure group that develops, plans, builds, operates and finances projects. On the stock market, the Group is increasingly perceived as a rare European data center story. The figures for the first quarter show why the stock market no longer reads Hochtief solely as a cyclical construction stock. Currency-adjusted sales increased by 14% year-on-year to EUR 9.4 billion, while operating profit rose disproportionately by 30% to EUR 217 million. Order intake climbed by 27% to EUR 15.2 billion, while the order backlog reached a new record of EUR 79.3 billion.
Reset
Nevertheless, the stock market initially reacted sceptically to the interim results, as turnover was slightly below expectations and the share was ripe for profit-taking after the record run. At the same time, operating profit exceeded estimates. The quarter was therefore not so much weak as overpriced for every little blur on the sales side. Hochtief has maintained its outlook after the start of the year. For 2026, the Group continues to forecast an operating net profit of EUR 950 million to EUR 1.025 billion, i.e. an increase of 20% to 30%. Against the backdrop of the first quarter, this target range seems more cautious than ambitious. Analysts share this view: BofA believes Hochtief is well positioned to raise its forecast by the third quarter figures. The Group’s main lever remains its US subsidiary Truner, which is benefiting from the accelerated hyperscaler capex.
Is there now a buying opportunity?
After reaching a record high of EUR 554, the share has fallen back to EUR 460, i.e. by around 17%. This signals that even a structural winner cannot continue to run every day. At the same time, however, this breather could tempt investors to enter the market, as Hochtief offers an attractive growth and infrastructure story. This is also the view of the analysts at BofA Global Research, who have raised their price target from EUR 460 to EUR 605. This is more than just a cosmetic move. It signals that the more bullish analysts are no longer just looking at the rally’s past, but at a scenario in which Turner, defense infrastructure and the operating leverage of the record order backlog continue to drive estimates higher. Add to that a DAX rise in June and that would be an additional technical catalyst.
Investment solutions
Trading-oriented investors can use the Long Mini Future IHOFTZ from ZKB with leverage to realize this scenario. The knock-out is located at EUR 427.2320, 11.7 percent away from the current price level. The Unlimited Turbo warrant (ISIN DE000FE3VUZ3) from Societe Generale. The stop-loss level of the product, which is traded on SwissDOTS, is EUR 385.0100 and the leverage is 4.4.
Cautious investors can buy the Barrier Reverse Convertible RHOABV from Bank Vontobel with a remaining term until February 2027. The product offers the prospect of a return of 6.9% p.a., with a barrier at EUR 220.90 – a buffer of a whopping 54%.
