Gold: too much of a bad thing

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  Wolfgang Hagl
  Redaktor

A war has been raging in the Middle East for almost four weeks. In addition to the incredible human suffering, the escalation between the USA and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other is leaving deep scars in all macroeconomic forecasts. As the Strait of Hormuz is de facto blocked, the world is facing an energy shortage. In normal times, around 15 million barrels of crude oil are transported through the strait every day, which corresponds to more than a tenth of global consumption. Inflation forecasts have shot up along with the price of the most important energy source. While many investors had an easing of monetary policy on the cards just a short time ago, interest rates could now soon be raised, especially in Europe. This is not yet the case in the USA. But even in the States, the consensus for further easing this year is off the table for the time being.

Interest as an opportunity cost

In view of these scenarios, reinforced by the latest meetings of the Fed & Co, there has been no stopping gold recently. The most important precious metal lost more than a tenth of its value within a week. Rising interest rates have always been a drag on gold. As the commodity itself does not generate any current income, the yields achievable on the bond markets represent a kind of opportunity cost. In addition to the prospect of a rise in interest rates, profit-taking is also likely to have played a role in the recent sell-off. After all, gold was on a historic rally until the end of January.

It remains to be seen whether the Fed & Co. will actually tighten the reins. The analysts at J.P. Morgan have their doubts. They assume that monetary policy expectations in the USA will once again shift significantly in the direction of easing. The experts base their assessment on the situation on the labor market. In February 2026, 92,000 jobs were lost in the states outside the agricultural sector. This was 42,000 more than economists had expected on average. This means that the world’s largest economy has seen job losses in three of the past five months. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.4% in February.

The Fed has a dual mandate and must keep an eye on the employment situation in addition to inflation. According to J.P. Morgan, the second part of the mandate will come into focus. “We continue to believe that the environment for gold is likely to turn clearly bullish quickly,” is how the analysts at the major US bank sum up their opinion.

Solid arguments

In any case, little has changed in terms of the other arguments for positioning in gold. In addition to the tense geopolitical situation, these include the rising US national debt and the associated loss of confidence in the dollar. Against this backdrop, central banks are taking bold action and diversifying their currency reserves with gold. Interest from private investors has recently waned somewhat. From a global perspective, however, physically backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also recorded inflows of funds in February 2026, even though the correction in gold was already underway.

Investment solutions

Natürlich hat der jüngste Rücksetzer auch im Chartbild tiefe Spuren hinterlassen. Das Edelmetall ist zusehends überverkauft. Auf Intraday-Basis hat sich die 200-Tage-Linie als Rückhalt erwiesen. Am Montag setzt Gold am gleitenden Durchschnitt auf. Bei einer Betrachtung zu Schlusskursen kommt dem Bereich um USD 4’400 je Feinunze eine wichtige Bedeutung zu. Hier verläuft eine horizontale Unterstützung. Dieses Areal würde eine gute Basis für einen kurzfristigen Rebound bieten. Trader können unter anderem mit dem Mini-Future Long MGOB4V darauf setzen, dass Gold nach oben dreht. Das Vontobel-Produkt partizipiert mit einem Hebel von aktuell rund 5 an steigenden Notierungen. Achtung: Sollte es zu einer neuen Verkaufswelle kommen, drohen überproportionale Verluste.

Aufgrund der ausgeprägten Volatilität ist das Edelmetall-Segment auch für die Coupon-Jäger interessant. Leonteq bringt Gold und Silber für den Callable Barrier Reverse Convertible AFYTTQ zusammen. Bei der auf CHF lautenden Emission beträgt der garantiert Coupon 10.40% p.a. Dieser Chance steht eine Barriere von 59% des Anfangslevels der beiden Basiswerte gegenüber. Garantiegeberin ist die Aargauische Kantonalbank, die Zeichnungsfrist endet am morgigen Donnerstagnachmittag. Ab dem 30. März 2026 ist der BRC an der SIX Swiss Exchange kotiert.