Nokia: A new start between radio masts and AI

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  Christian Ingerl
  Redaktor

A few days ago Nokia held an analyst conference in Stockholm. At this event, the management provided important insights into the future of the Group. The Finns’ strategy sounds less like a traditional telecoms supplier and more like an infrastructure player for the AI age. Chief Financial Officer Marco Wirén presented investors with a picture of a group in transition: away from the cyclical mobile business and towards software, cloud networks and data-driven platforms.

The tone of the presentation was clearly positive. While the mobile network business remains strictly focused on margins and return on capital, the Executive Board now sees the real growth opportunities in network infrastructure. Here, Nokia is benefiting from the demand for data center connections, high-speed optical networks and AI workloads. The integration of US optics specialist Infinera in particular is seen internally as a strategic lever: synergies should be realized faster than planned and margins in the optics business should increase significantly in the medium term.

Exploring opportunities

In the mobile communications segment, however, Nokia remains cautious. Operators’ investment cycles are subdued following the 5G roll-out and growth opportunities are limited. Management is therefore focusing more on disciplined contract selection and software revenue. Opportunities arise mainly indirectly: for example, through the possible replacement of Chinese network technology in Europe or new applications in the defense sector. In addition, the transition to so-called AI-RAN architectures could result in higher software shares in the long term, although this is only likely to be the case at the end of the decade.

Nokia was much more optimistic about the development of AI and the cloud. Around 6% of Group sales already come from this environment, and the trend is rising. Hyperscalers are investing heavily in data centers, which is driving demand for optical connections and IP networks. New products such as 800 gigabit optics and high-performance routers are expected to provide additional growth impetus from this year onwards. The company also confirmed its long-term margin targets and continues to aim for an operating profit of up to EUR 3.2 billion by 2028.

A short-term look back is also encouraging: in the fourth quarter of 2025, Nokia generated sales of around EUR 6.1 billion, driven primarily by AI and cloud investments in the infrastructure business. This was in line with market expectations. The figures underline a stabilization after weaker mobile communications years. The Group reported an operating profit of around EUR 2 billion for the year as a whole and confirmed a dividend of up to EUR 0.14 per share.

Setting the strategic course

At the same time, Nokia is pushing ahead with a far-reaching corporate reorganization. The strategy presented in the autumn bundles the business into two main pillars in future – network and mobile infrastructure – and places AI-based applications at the center of development. The aim is to significantly increase profitability in the coming years. Cost reductions, job cuts in individual regions and the review of non-strategic activities are also part of the strategy.

The change in strategy is slowly beginning to pay off on the stock market. After some interim scepticism about the transformation, the share price has recently stabilized and is moving back towards its multi-year high. Investors are betting that Nokia will find a new role in the AI-driven infrastructure boom – less as a supplier of wireless networks and more as an architect of digital data highways. If this transformation succeeds, the recent high of EUR 6.94 is unlikely to be the end of the road.

Investment solutions

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