Space Economy: Ready for Takeoff

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  Wolfgang Hagl
  Redaktor

On 20 May 2026, SpaceX published its prospectus. With this move, the space company owned by US billionaire Elon Musk kicked off the final phase of its initial public offering (IPO). The document, which runs to almost 400 pages, is of interest not only to analysts and investors. At times, the prospectus reads like a science fiction novel. “We don’t want humanity to suffer the same fate as the dinosaurs”, writes Musk, for example, referring to his strong urge to explore the vastness of the universe. Alongside the colonisation of the Moon and Mars, as well as energy generation there, the world’s richest man outlines raw material extraction on asteroids, factories and data centres in space, ultra-fast travel between major cities, and space tourism as visions for the future.

“We believe we have identified the largest potential total addressable market in the history of humankind”, reads page 11 of the “FORM S-1” document. However, the bulk of this USD 28.5 trillion pie does not stem directly from SpaceX’s current core business. Rather, Musk attributes more than three-quarters of the “total addressable market”, or TAM for short, to the field of artificial intelligence (see chart 1). The company has only been active in this segment for a few months. In February, Musk merged his AI start-up xAI with SpaceX.

An IPO of epic proportions

Compared to these visions, SpaceX is still small in reality. In 2025, the company generated revenue of USD 18.7 billion. Due to heavy investment in xAI, the bottom line showed a loss of just under USD 5 billion. Nevertheless, the industry giant is on the verge of a superlative IPO. When SpaceX makes its debut on the Nasdaq on 12 June 2026, the space company could immediately rank among the world’s ten largest listed companies with a market capitalisation of USD 1.75 trillion – and cement Elon Musk’s dominance as the world’s richest person.

At the same time, the IPO – expected to be worth USD 75 billion – is bringing the space economy as a whole even more into the spotlight for investors. The company, founded by Musk in 2002, has played a key role in the growth of this particular sector. Not least, the “Falcon” launch vehicle – parts of which are reusable – has made it increasingly cost-effective to transport materials into orbit. At the same time, with Starlink, SpaceX has established itself as the largest provider of space-based broadband internet: 9,600 satellites provide high-speed connections to nearly 10.3 million users in 164 countries.

On course to break the sound barrier

There are also strong ties between SpaceX and government space agencies. Both NASA in the US and the European Space Agency (ESA) use rockets from the US industry giant. In general, the public sector plays an important role in the space economy. According to figures from the Space Foundation, government budgets accounted for more than a fifth of the total space economy in 2024 (see chart 2).

Together with commercial players, this market reached a total volume of USD 613 billion. Compared with the previous year, this represented growth of 7.8%. The Space Foundation paints a positive picture of the future. “The global space economy could exceed the one trillion US dollar mark as early as 2032, driven in part by the booming commercial market, which is rapidly capitalising on advances in communications and Earth observation satellites”, explains the industry organisation (see chart 3).

Against this backdrop, the rush for SpaceX shares comes as no surprise. Nevertheless, there is a downside to this mega-IPO, namely its extremely high valuation. For instance, the estimated market capitalisation is nearly a hundred times the company’s most recent revenue. The company has yet to prove that it can live up to its own ambitions. Setbacks are always a possibility, as the Starship project demonstrates. For years, development of this fully reusable heavy-lift rocket and its space capsule has progressed only slowly. At the end of May, engineers at the SpaceX spaceport Starbase near Brownsville, Texas, had reason to celebrate: an unmanned test flight of the extensively revised V3 version of the Starship was successful.

Systematic search

As tempting as SpaceX’s debut may be, it could make sense for investors to adopt a diversified approach to the space industry. Fortunately, there are a number of index solutions available for this sector. Solactive has been calculating the Space Technology Index for almost exactly five years. This index brings together 20 specialists in space technology. The selection universe includes shares from Europe, Australia, Japan and North America. Following a quantitative pre-selection process, the index provider uses a language algorithm to systematically search for companies with significant activity in the space economy.

Firefly Aerospace is one of the heavyweights in the Solactive Space Technology Index: founded in 2017, the US company covers a wide range of space services. For example, in early 2025 Firefly successfully sent the “Blue Ghost” lander to the Moon on behalf of NASA. A second mission of this kind is currently being planned. Alongside the US space agency, the Pentagon is among the Texan firm’s clients. Firefly is working on the development of “Golden Dome”, the US’s space-based missile defence shield. Although the young company is growing strongly – with revenues rising by 45% in the first quarter of 2026 – Firefly is still deep in the red.

Enormous thrust

The same applies to Rocket Lab, another heavy-weight in the Solactive Space Technology Index. The company, which is also based in the US, launches its ‘Electron’ rocket into orbit from the Mahia Peninsula in New Zealand and a launch site on Wallops Island in the US state of Virginia. This launch vehicle carries payloads weighing up to 300 kg into low Earth orbit. The order book is bursting at the seams. As of the end of March 2026, the order backlog stood at USD 2.2 billion, a good fifth higher than the previous year’s level. Rocket Lab is also showing strong momentum on the stock market. Since the start of the year alone, its market capitalisation has expanded by just under 60%. The Nasdaq-listed company has thus contributed to the strong performance of the Solactive Space Technology Index (see chart 4).

Rocket Lab and Firefly are also among the largest holdings in the MarketVector Global Space Industry Screened Index. The creators of this benchmark, launched in 2021, aim to bring together the largest and most liquid companies in the global space industry. Only companies that generate a significant portion of their revenue from space exploration, rockets and propulsion systems, satellite equipment and satellite communications solutions are eligible. US companies account for just under two-thirds of this index, which comprises a total of 25 stocks. This means that US dominance is not quite as pronounced as in the Solactive benchmark, where more than three-quarters of the weighting is attributable to US stocks.

Focus on Europe

The Euronext Helios Space Index represents a kind of alternative approach. Here, US-based companies play only a minor role, accounting for less than 8% of the index’s weighting. The rationale is to include companies that benefit from European space policy. In making its selection, the stock exchange operator Euronext draws on the expertise of the ESA. A share can only be included once the agency has given the “go-ahead”. The index covers a spectrum ranging from the development and construction of space systems, through launch vehicles and ground stations, to satellite operators and service providers for communication, navigation and Earth observation. As a result of the methodology outlined, the Euronext Helios Space Index contains fewer “pure plays” but is instead composed of broadly diversified technology and industrial groups. Naturally, the aerospace group Airbus is a key component.

Focus on quality

Under the banner of “Space Race”, ZKB is focusing on the space economy. Zürcher Kantonalbank has launched an actively managed equity basket. The bank’s in-house asset management team is responsible for its composition. The experts are scouring the space sector for fundamental criteria, paying particular attention to quality indicators such as the generation of free cash flow. In alphabetical order, the basket’s line-up is led by Amazon.com. The CEO of the e-commerce giant, Jeff Bezos, has a penchant for space. He is the founder of the space company Blue Origin and is currently taking on Starlink. For “Amazon Leo”, around 3,200 small satellites are to be launched into low Earth orbit to enable voice and data connections. Just under 250 artificial Earth satellites are already in operation. With the ongoing takeover of the satellite company Globalstar, Amazon is underlining its space ambitions. The target of the bid, worth just under USD 12 billion, is also included in the ZKB Basket. A recent incident at Blue Origin highlights the risks in this business: the company’s “New Glenn” rocket exploded during a ground engine test. The launch pad at Cape Canaveral Spaceport in Florida was severely damaged in the process.

Investment solutions

With the ORBITZ Tracker Certificate, the Cantonal Bank makes its selection of shares investable in USD. However, the “Space Race” is time-limited, with the term ending after two years. Under the symbol SPACEZ, the basket is also available in the product currency CHF. Investors can add the featured share indices to their portfolio without any time limit. UBS trades the SPACEU Tracker Certificate on the Euronext Helios Space Index and charges a management fee of 0.50% p.a. for this. Bank Vontobel charges a fee of 1.20% p.a. for the ZSSTUV Participation Product tracking the Solactive Space Technology Index. In the ETF segment of the Swiss stock exchange, the MarketVector Global Space Industry Screened Index can be found. VanEck tracks this benchmark for an annual fee of 0.55%. The passive fund, with the ticker symbol JEDI, has assets under management of around USD 2.5 billion.