Product News
“Trading idea”: Roche – chance of a rebound
-
Serge Nussbaumer
Chefredaktor
In an already difficult stock market phase, the US trade policy is an additional burden for Roche. However, the company’s valuation and operating performance suggest a turn for the better.
Mini Future Long on Roche GS
On September 22, Roche hosted a “Pharma Day” in London. In a presentation of almost 170 pages, the top management of the Group divisions outlined the strategy of the Basel-based company and provided an insight into the research pipeline. It was revealed that the industry giant is working on a number of potential blockbusters. One major topic was the push into the market for weight loss products. The Basel-based company aims to launch anti-obesity drugs on the market by 2030 and become one of the three market leaders in this area.
This event did not really help the ailing Roche participation certificate. The SMI share rose by a good 2% on September 22. However, the price fell again on the following days. A tweet sent in Washington D.C. caused the effect of the appearance in the British metropolis to fade. On the Truth Social platform, US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 100% tariff on the import of branded or patented pharmaceutical products. Like its rival Novartis, Roche also reacted calmly. The company referred to the recently launched construction of a production facility in Holly Springs in the US state of North Carolina. In April, Roche announced plans to invest a total of USD 50 billion in the USA over the next three years. According to CEO Thomas Schinecker, the Group has also shifted inventories and ramped up drug production in the USA. Nevertheless, the Trump policy remains a “bitter pill” for Roche and the entire sector.
“Roche aims to launch anti-obesity drugs by 2030 and then become a top 3 player in this market.”
The Basel-based company has to accept this at a time when its image among investors is already tarnished. Research setbacks, patent expiries and negative currency effects are weighing on profit prospects. As a result, Roche has fallen behind the European healthcare sector: Within five years, the profit participation certificate has underperformed by around 30 percentage points. However, the valuation discrepancy is also remarkable. Roche is now trading at less than nine times its expected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). Among the major European pharmaceutical companies, only France’s Sanofi has an even smaller multiple. At Novartis, the ratio is just under 12. Roche will present its sales figures for the third quarter of 2025 on October 23, and the company will appear at several analyst conferences in the following weeks. It is quite possible that the management will succeed in turning the mood around or highlighting the progress already shown in London. Traders with a preference for “contrarian” strategies can use the Mini Future Long (ISIN CH1285472465) to bet that the Roche share will turn upwards. The product participates in rising prices with a current leverage of 5.67. At CHF 219.04, the stop loss is 13.5% below the Roche share price.
Product information*
| ISIN | CH1285472465 |
| Product type | Mini Future Long |
| Underlying | Roche GS |
| Issuer | BNP Paribas |
| Rating | A+ (S&P) |
| Trading currency | CHF |
| First trading day | 03.10.2023 |
| Maturity | open-end |
| Underlying | CHF 253.55 |
| Leverage* | 5.67 |
| Issue price | CHF 4.80 |
| Stop loss | CHF 219.04 |
| Financing level | CHF 209.32 |
| Ask* | CHF 4.5 |
| Exchange | Swiss DOTS |
| Weblink | payoff.ch/CH1285472465 |
Course progression
