“Trading idea”: SMI – a solid base for a recovery rally

• 

  Wolfgang Hagl
  Redaktor

The balance of power on the global equity markets has recently shifted decisively back in favour of the US. Whilst the S&P 500 has risen by a remarkable 8% over the past month, Europe has lagged significantly behind. The EURO STOXX 50 gained only around 2%. The Swiss market performed even more modestly, with the SMI managing a gain of just around 1% over the same period.

This underperformance is all the more remarkable given that the SMI had previously staged a dynamic, almost V-shaped recovery. Yet it is precisely this movement that now appears to be losing momentum. The index has recently stalled at around the 13,000-point mark – a level that is increasingly emerging as a short-term resistance zone. From a technical chart perspective, the picture is one of indecision. The SMI is currently hovering around its 100-day moving average, which stands at around 13,200 points.

This line currently acts as a sort of equilibrium point between bulls and bears. On the downside, however, the longer-term 200-day moving average at around 12,730 points provides solid support. As long as this level holds, the overall uptrend remains technically intact.

«A solid foundation, but momentum in the SMI remains subdued.»

Fundamentally, the SMI is caught between two opposing forces. On the one hand, the strong Swiss franc is putting a strain on the market, as it is sought after as a safe haven in times of geopolitical tension. The currency’s appreciation acts as a brake on export-oriented companies, as it makes their products more expensive abroad. 

On the other hand, the current earnings season is sending out some encouraging signals. ABB, for example, benefited from the boom in data centre construction and not only reported record orders but also raised its forecast for 2026. Positive momentum also came from the financial sector. Here, UBS surprised with strong figures. In the first quarter of 2026, the major bank’s profit rose by 80%, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations. In the defensive consumer goods sector, Nestlé also performed solidly. Organic growth of 3.5% exceeded market estimates. Roche presented a similarly stable picture: although the strong Swiss franc impacted sales, currency-adjusted growth amounted to 6%. Roche and Nestlé also confirmed their annual targets.

The outlook for the SMI is therefore decidedly optimistic. The index’s fundamentals appear sound, and should the pressure from the strong Swiss franc ease or global conditions improve, the SMI could well make up for its underperformance in the coming weeks. This presents a speculative opportunity for risk-conscious investors. One possible strategy is a Mini Future Long on SMI, which converts a continuation of the upward trend into disproportionately high profits. The product offers a leverage of 11.92, with the Stop Loss set at 12,190 points – just under 6% below the current price. This threshold lies well below the 200-day moving average and a horizontal support level at around 12,300 points.

Product information*

ISIN	CH1543715754
Product type	Mini Future Long
Underlying	SMI
Issuer	BNP Paribas
Rating	A+ (S&P)
Trading currency	CHF
First trading day	26 March 2026
Maturity	open-end
Underlying currency	CHF
Ask underlying*	CHF 12,969
Financing ratio	CHF 11,944
Stop Loss	CHF 12,190
Leverage	11.92
Ask*	CHF 10.925
Trading venue	Swiss DOTS
Web link	bnp.ch/CH1543715754

Price performance