“Trading Idea”: Nvidia – Is the AI Star fading?

• 

  Wolfgang Hagl
  Redaktor

The semiconductor sector remains the driving force of the AI boom. Hardly a week goes by without new figures, new investment plans or new forecasts firing up investors’ imaginations. The most recent driver was Micron. The memory chipmaker posted strong results, confirming that the hunger for AI infrastructure remains unbroken. Qualcomm also provided tailwind by expanding its product range. All the more striking, however, that Nvidia can no longer keep up pace. While many chip titles continue to rally, the world market leader is showing weakness. The share price has been drifting south for some time, putting the psychologically important USD 200 mark in focus. A sustained slide below that level could be seen as a technical sell signal and trigger follow-on selling.

“The semiconductor sector remains the engine room
of the AI boom.”

Operationally, Nvidia is far from any crisis. Demand for AI accelerators, networking so-
lutions and data-centre platforms remains extremely high. The group continues to post record revenues, especially in its data-centre business. Nvidia is thus the central infrastructure stock of the AI boom. Anyone wanting to train AI or operate large language models can hardly ignore the group’s chips and systems. But that is increasingly also the problem. The share has already priced in this success and is no longer valued only for growth, but also for permanently high margins and a sustained investment boom. In such an environment, good figures alone are no longer enough: the market constantly expects new evidence of exponentially rising demand.

This is why critical voices, such as that of Michael Burry, who has previously publicly questioned earlier market excesses, are growing louder. His criticism is directed less at Nvidia’s technological strength than at the structure of the AI boom itself. At its core is the concern that the industry is increasingly financing itself. Chipmakers, cloud groups, AI start-ups and language-model developers are interconnected through billions of dollars in supply, financing and equity deals.

Such circular business relationships are not necessarily problematic. But the higher valuations climb, the greater the risk that the market can no longer cleanly separate real demand from financed demand. If cloud providers or AI companies were to throttle their investments even slightly, the risk-reward balance could quickly tip.

Nvidia is and remains an operationally strong company, but its shares look battered. Below USD 200, a technical shift in sentiment is looming.as well. Anyone wanting to bet on a continuation of the correction is well served by the recently issued Mini Future Short. The leverage is 4.0 and the Stop Loss sits 18% above the current price. However, the following applies: leverage works in both directions. Especially with Nvidia, counter-moves can be severe. Stop prices and appropriately sized positions are therefore the order of the day.

Product information*

ISIN	CH1571675029
Product type	Mini Future Short
Underlying	Nvidia
Issuer	BNP Paribas
Rating	A+ (S&P)
Underlying currency	USD
Trading currency	CHF
First trading day	4 June 2026
Maturity	open-end
Leverage	4.00
Stop loss	USD 230.00
Financing level	USD 241.9741
Ask*	CHF 3.97
Ask underlying*	USD 193.136
Exchange	Swiss DOTS
Weblink	bnp.ch/CH1571675029

Price performance NVIDIA